Core tips: this week weak aluminum prices down, Lun aluminum four Yin fell, fell below the 2100 support, the short-term test is expected to continue to support this pass; Shanghai aluminum frequently fell below 16,000, 15,500 support, closed down for five consecutive days, down about 5%, after this week's sharp drop, the short-term does not rule out the possibility of repair, and next week's heating season, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, can be bought a small amount.

I. Electrolytic aluminum market

East China region: short increasing positions, aluminum slump, this week with spot aluminum fell, as of Friday, the Yangtze River spot aluminum quoted 15280-15320 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton compared with last Friday.

Spot market, prices continue to fall, pressure on market confidence. The market bearish mood is strong, some bearers even appear to sell the phenomenon, resulting in the spot price along with the futures all the way down, middlemen have no stock, the downstream wait-and-see situation is strong, the overall turnover is weak.

South China region: as of Friday, South China aluminum ingot with ticket price in 15550-15650 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan compared to last Friday, the price continues to fall, attracting a lot of aluminum factory prices replenishment, trading activity significantly improved. Due to improved demand, the inventory of aluminum ingot in Guangdong market declined in recent two days, but the national aluminum inventory increased to more than 1.743 million tons. North China market is affected by illegal shutdown, aluminum water supply reduction, the recent digestion of inventories.

Second, scrap aluminum market

Spot with aluminium, aluminium scrap prices this week has been cut offer, regional aluminium scrap all have varying degrees of decline, in 150-300 yuan/tons, after this week's slump in a row, market fears warmed up, the downstream smelter in the case of poor environmental regulations and requirements, purchase continue to caution, partial businessman interacting, purchase, but the shipper of low price rised, Transaction limited; Hebei can because of the early market supply is limited, leading to the price is artificially high, this week the tension has eased, the price also followed the decline, at present Hebei can about 9500-9700 yuan/ton.

Next week market forecast: after this week's continued decline, aluminum has also fallen below a certain support level, short-term repair is not ruled out, and next week the heating season will come, the market hopes positive support, aluminum price is expected to stabilize, scrap aluminum is also expected to stabilize.

III. Futures market analysis

Rising dollar excitation in profits, and domestic prices weak influence, this week's quadruple Yin, aluminum plate below the $2100 mark for the important support, the minimum hitting $2078, shock stabilized, then return to near $2100, over and over again for the mark for the support, after tumbling prices this week, next week, does not exclude the possibility has repair, Aluminium or stop at 2080, again seeking $2100 threshold support.

Air hair force to pressure aluminum prices, this week Shanghai aluminum weakness down, the main contract 1801 frequently fell below 16,000, 15,500 important threshold support, the lowest intraday reached 15320, closed down for 5 consecutive days, this week the cumulative decline of about 750 yuan, 5%, after a continuous decline, Friday's decline slowed down, Shanghai aluminum main back to near 15500 shock, Short term is expected to repeatedly seek this point of support, after this week's sharp decline, aluminum prices fell below a certain level of support, short term does not rule out the possibility of repair, and next week's heating season, the market should not appear too much negative, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize.

IV. Operation Suggestions

Futures: the rise of the dollar inspired profit-taking, this week's four consecutive negative fall, intradyfell below the important threshold of $2100 support, then the shock stabilized, back to near $2100 shock, after this week's sharp decline, next week does not rule out the possibility of repair, Lunalu or stop falling at $2080, again seeking $2100 threshold support.

Depress prices, short hair force this week, the Shanghai aluminum weak decline, the main contract important gateway support frequently below 16000, 1801, 15500, closed down for five days, this week accumulated losses of 750 yuan, or 5%, after continuous declines, slow decline on Friday, the Shanghai aluminum main back in 15500 near the shock, short-term is expected to again and again seek the mark for the support, After this week's sharp decline, aluminum prices fell below a certain level of support, short term does not rule out the possibility of repair, and next week's heating season, the market should not appear too much negative, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize.

Inventory: This week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum stock is 352,000 tons in Shanghai, 663,000 tons in Wuxi, 442,000 tons in Nanhai, 109,000 tons in Gongyi, 92,000 tons in Hangzhou, 54,000 tons in Tianjin, and 31,000 tons in Chongqing. The total aluminum ingot stock in seven places is 1.743 million tons.

Spot aspect: as of Friday, East China spot aluminum transaction at 15280-15320 yuan/ton, last week down 700 yuan/ton, period discount narrowing to flat water. Suggestions can buy a small amount.