Who moved the aluminum "cake"?
China securities journal
Aluminum industry chain high inventory, high profit and high prices, there are some new changes in the present: a small reduction in stocks, the overall price stability, but gross profit is falling sharply.
According to relevant data, the latest social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 22,000 tons to 1684,000 tons. The latest average cost of aluminum smelting enterprises in China is RMB 16,100, and the latest average cost of electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises is 15,800 yuan/ton. According to this calculation, the gross profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is only 300 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate has fallen sharply.
Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in the aluminum industry's profits is that the price of raw materials such as alumina, prepaid anode and aluminum fluoride has risen sharply, and the price of some raw materials has increased by more than 100%. Enterprise production effect is about to appear until after November 15, while the new capacity is still on, so in the short term production or in the increasing stage, high inventory changes also need time, so the price is expected to remain high volatility. To keep going, you need to wait until next year for the "gold and silver four" shopping season.
High inventories and high price profits fell sharply.
According to the latest data, the latest social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 1684,000 tons, down 22,000 tons from last week. The latest average cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises is 15,800 yuan/ton. With the latest aluminum price calculation, the gross profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is only 300 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate has fallen sharply.
"Since last Thursday, social inventories have started to show signs of inflection, and supply contraction is beginning to show up in inventory. Stocks are expected to fall further as the next heating season limits production. Xinda futures metal researcher Chen minghua said.
Liu chao, an analyst at boc international futures, pointed out that the decline in inventories was mainly due to the decline in aluminium production in China. In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.610 million tons. In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum in China was 29.30 million tons, which was affected by the supply-side reform, and the production decreased by 10%. However, the main reason for the decline in aluminum industry profits is that the price of raw materials such as alumina, prepaid anode and aluminum fluoride has risen sharply, and the price of some raw materials has increased by more than 100%.
"The price of alumina has risen from 2,500 yuan/ton in mid-august to 3,700 yuan/ton, supported by tight supplies of domestic bauxite mines in henan and shanxi provinces. As the heating season approaches, it is expected that the price of alumina will continue, the supply of alumina will remain tight, and the price will remain strong. Mr Chen said.
According to cinda futures, alumina production was 584,000 tonnes in August, down 164,000 tonnes from July. The cumulative production in January and August was 48812,000 tons, up 17.5% year on year. Since September, the supply of domestic alumina has been tight. Due to the tight supply of domestic bauxite mines and the production limit of the heating season, the tight pattern is expected to be maintained.
According to the ALD data, the production capacity of domestic alumina started in September was 71.33 million tons, the opening rate was 89.9%, and the production capacity continued to decline. Due to the limited production of the heating season and the shortage of domestic bauxite supply, the construction rate is expected to decline further.
Chen minghua pointed out that the environmental protection inspection in the north has intensified, and some mines have stopped mining. At present, some parts of shanxi have started to buy ore from the south, and the henan area also has the phenomenon of foreign purchase of high-temperature ore, and the whole ore stock of the north oxidized aluminum plant is tight.
Obvious cost support
"The effect of heating season on alumina is significantly higher than that of electrolytic aluminum. According to our calculations, heating season during alumina production pressure reduction of 10.22 million tons, calculated at 1.92 tons of alumina production 1 tons of electrolytic aluminum, amount to 5.32 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, far above the electrolytic aluminium production capacity 2.16 million tons of pressure reduction. Therefore, the price of aluminum oxide in heating season continues to rise. Sun wei-dong, a nonferrous metals analyst with dongzheng futures.
At present, the production policy of the peak heating season is basically fully implemented. According to the calculation of dongzheng futures, the operating capacity of the heating season is 2.16 million tons, which is reduced to 180,000 tons per month during the heating season.
"The premise is that companies strictly enforce environmental policies. It is a potential risk that local enterprises may not be able to implement policies in the same way that we have been tracking the operation of the enterprise. "Sun said.
According to WBMS data, the global supply of electrolytic aluminum has been in short supply of 1.572 million tons as of August, an increase of 191,000 tons from July. In 2016, the shortfall was 985 thousand tons. Overall, the global market for electrolytic aluminum remains tight, especially in areas outside China.
In September, according to data IAI global electrolytic aluminum production is 4.927 million tons, fell 3.09% year on year, with China's production of 2.606 million tons, fell 34000 tons, 52.9% of the world, the rest of the world production of 2.321 million tons, fell to 78000 tons.
Chen minghua believes that some of the current irregularities in production capacity shut down, electrolysis aluminum production has decreased, although there is new production capacity, but the heating season is approaching, production is expected to continue to shrink. With the domestic supply side reform and the environmental protection limit in winter, the global supply of raw aluminum will be increased.
"As the supply-side reform continues (non-compliance aluminium production capacity exits), the pace of decline in China's electrolytic aluminium production will accelerate." "Liu said.
According to zhuo gen information statistics, by the end of September, the domestic aluminum smelting enterprises to build production capacity of 45.677 million tons, run the production capacity of 36.632 million tons, production operating ratio 80.2% (according to zhuo gen April, China's electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 44.67 million tons, the completion of operating capacity of 38.43 million tons), operation capacity decline rapidly.
Liu chao said that from the effect of restricting output ratio, shandong, henan is the largest alumina production in China, their production of alumina prices rose sharply, pre bake anode leak rate is higher at the same time, the sustained and rapid rise in price. On the one hand, the impact of environmental restriction is the decline of electrolytic aluminum inventory and the rapid increase of the cost of electrolytic aluminum.
The supply-side reform of shandong and xinjiang, with a limited capacity of 4.68 million tons, and other areas with illegal production capacity, total illegal production capacity exceeded 5 million tons. At the same time, the impact of "2+26" environmental protection restrictions has just begun. According to the latest release data, shandong, henan and shanxi provinces will produce more than 2.6 million tons of aluminium production, and the supply of spot aluminum will be further reduced in the winter, liu said.
Waiting patiently for the bright spring
"In terms of demand, it is optimistic that the heating season will maintain its current state. In addition, the heating season will be the real pressure on aluminum prices will be new production capacity. The non-normal discharge period of the electrolytic tank is usually one to two months, so that at least 1.4 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation in the middle of November. Of course, the actual production schedule will depend on the profits of tons of aluminum, but there will be no doubt that the aluminum price will be under considerable pressure. Taken together, aluminum prices are in a volatile trend in the short term, and if you stand at 17,000 yuan/ton again, you may be under a lot of pressure. "Mr Sun said.
Liu chao pointed out that the autumn and winter is the seasonal production and marketing season for aluminum production and consumption. It is expected that the decline rate of electrolysis aluminum production will accelerate in China in the fourth quarter to the beginning of next year. On the demand side, the processing fee of aluminum downstream processing materials is stable. The supply of aluminum rods has been tightened recently, the processing fee has been increased, and even some models of aluminum bars have been in short supply, and the stocks of aluminum rods have declined. Aluminium scrap is subject to import restrictions, prices are high and supply is tight.
From a policy point of view, liu believes that the supply-side reform of the aluminum industry will not be relaxed, but will continue to be implemented and implemented. In the future, aluminum production capacity will remain in a strictly restricted environment, and aluminum prices will still have long-term benefits. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile in the fourth quarter, lower than the cost of buying, and companies limit output, which can easily lead to rising water. But the high price of aluminum can easily lead to regulatory pressure, which will be the main keynote of future aluminum price development.
"Enterprise production effect probably to appear until after November 15, while the new capacity is still on, so in the short term production or in the increasing stage, high inventory changes also need time, so the price is expected to remain high volatility." Guo qiuying, a futures analyst with China investment bank, said prices would have to wait until next year for the "gold and silver four" shopping season. At the same time, according to the calculation of environmental limits and production, there will still be 800,000 tons of aluminum in the whole year of next year, so the price will still be much higher next year.