Fubao information on March 3:
Core tip: this month, lun aluminum continuously set a new record high, and the rising trend is intact; Although Shanghai aluminum is under high inventory control, but the trend of strong volatility is unchanged, it is expected that the aluminum price in March will rise first and then fall, and the range of lun aluminum fluctuates between 1,850 and 2000 dollars. The main fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum is 1.35- 14,500. East China spot aluminum fluctuates from 1.34 to 142,000, and it is recommended to buy at a moderate amount.
I. fundamental analysis.
1. The supply and demand analysis
(1) China's imports of bauxite in January 2017 were 11.74 percent lower than the same period last year.
Table 1: China's bauxite import in January.
According to customs data, China's bauxite imports in January were about 455,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.74%. In January, about 2.14 million tons of bauxite was imported from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 78.14%, which became the first importer of bauxite in January. Imports of bauxite from Malaysia were about 188,000 tons in January, down 90.9% from a year earlier. In January, 1.164 million tons of bauxite were imported from guinea, up 279.27 percent year on year. Separately, guinea's mining minister said that in order to meet China's demand for bauxite, the production of high-grade bauxite in guinea is expected to exceed 60 million tons by 2020.
(2) in January 2017, China's alumina imports decreased by 47.64% compared with the previous year, and by 27.4% compared with the previous month.
Figure 1: comparison of Chinese alumina imports and exports in 2013-2017.
According to Chinese customs data, the import of alumina in January was about 268,000 tons, a decrease of 47.64% from the previous year, of which 147,000 were imported from Australia, accounting for 54.9%. In terms of exports, China exported 5386 tons of alumina in January, down 61.59 percent from a year earlier.
Figure 2: comparison of alumina production in China from November to 2016.
By the end of February 2017, China's alumina production has not been announced in January. In December 2016, the monthly output of alumina in China was 5614,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.24%, and a cumulative annual output of 60827,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.93%. Otherwise, in 2017 China alumina is expected to begin new capacity of 6 million tons, the output is expected to reach 80 million tons, according to 82% annual average starts this year, the annual output is expected to reach 65.6 million tons, 2017 year-on-year growth of 9.2%.
(3) China's original aluminum production in January was 2.95 million tons, an increase of 2.04 percent from the previous month.
Figure 3: analysis diagram of electrolytic aluminum production in China from November to 2017.
In January, China produced 2.95 million tons of raw aluminum, up 16.6% from a year earlier. Global (excluding China) aluminium production was 2168,000 tonnes in January, down from 2171,000 tonnes in December.
(4) stock of lun aluminum and Shanghai aluminum.
Figure 4: LME aluminum stocks.
Since January 20, the stock has been in a downward trend. As of February 28, the stock has reached 2200,900 tons, down 67975 tons from January.
Figure 5: upper exchange aluminum inventory.
And Aaron aluminum stock, on the other hand, since the Spring Festival, the Shanghai aluminum stocks has been a trend, because of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand turn pale, make inventory, as of February 24, the exchange of aluminium inventories have up to 193552 tons, a rise of 75001 tons, in the years to rise as high as 63%, high inventories also makes the Shanghai aluminum gains were limited.
(5) fubao research
Continue to research regional aluminium starts this month, according to research that markets have been started after the Lantern Festival, in addition to shandong, xinjiang region to maintain high utilization, which is 96% in shandong, xinjiang 94%; The rate of work in other areas is still insufficient, and the rate of construction in henan is only 70%. Xinjiang utilization high, also makes the market inventory extrusion, holidays, east China, south China market, the arrival of the goods increased dramatically, at present, the Shanghai aluminum ingots inventory has up to 210000 tons, the south China sea aluminum stock up to 250000 tonnes.
Production, recently because of xuanhua explosion accident in xinjiang, the xinjiang autonomous region government requires enterprises in xinjiang to strengthen production safety management, to not require completion and production of aluminum rod production enterprise production safety relative formalities, for opening soon caused a certain influence, starting time is delayed, the impact is not big but have started construction of enterprise. In addition, some areas in guangdong were once again subjected to environmental inspections, and the rate of construction of heavy smelting aluminum bars fell sharply, and the market rate was only about 60-70%.
Ii. Spot market analysis.
1. Spot price analysis
Figure 6: east China spot aluminum price chart in February.
East China: environmental protection to hype continuous fermentation capacity, February start prices showed a big wave rally, lasted until the 16th, the Yangtze river spot aluminum ingots breaks through 14000, the highest to 14210 yuan/ton, then fell back, although at the end of the month to recover some losses, but still not above 14000, month or 1.35%, as of March 3, the Yangtze river the spot price of aluminum ingots in 13690-13730 yuan/ton.
Spot market, in early February, the businessman has not fully into the market, demand is poorer, plus the prices keep rising, the downstream enterprises fear high apparent, the market pick up cargo co., LTD., with downstream of small and medium enterprises in the market after the Lantern Festival, the market transaction recovery, middlemen to move goods is positive, February volume gradually turn for the better.
Figure 7: spot aluminum price chart of foshan in February.
: in south China are different from eastern China aluminum ingots rally, slipping phenomena appears in south China in February, by the end of February, south China aluminum ingots with ticket prices between 13780-13880 yuan/ton, the end of January, down 360 yuan/ton, one of the most high to 14560 yuan/ton, the lowest 13630 yuan/ton. In February, the market of south China market was relatively active, and the downstream enterprises needed to prepare goods on demand.
2. Scrap market
(1) analysis of aluminum market in each region.
Table 2: aluminum price statistics in some areas (unit: yuan/ton)
Aluminium scrap prices overall in February from January a little higher prices, how near 200 yuan/ton, ringing of aluminum profiles and chongqing aluminum alloy material price fluctuation is bigger, during the Spring Festival with rose significantly, as of the end of the month, mi - 9700-9900 yuan/ton, 11000 near chongqing alloy white material, south China clean machine cast aluminium market mainstream price near 10100 yuan/ton.
Market clinch a deal, in early February factor influence because of the holiday is not over, clinch a deal the cold and cheerless, receiving significant market is not much, as the post-holiday merchants in the market, receiving business increase, prices also boosted recyclers shipment, aluminium scrap market merchants in February delivery mood is higher, the market supply of goods, especially at the end of henan greiner, aluminium wire supply increased, recycled aluminum smelter dips on-demand stock up.
Environmental protection, begin on February 15, a new round of environmental supervision, is affected more serious is the beijing-tianjin-hebei region, small and medium-sized smelting enterprises shut down is serious, the manufacturers choose more goods bargains.
Market outlook forecast: as the peak season coming, aluminium scrap demand gradually improving, prices or stability of small and medium-sized market, but in March the fed to raise interest rates risk factors are expected to rebound space is limited, also suggested that recyclers fast into fast operation.
Figure 8: aluminum market chart.
In early January, Aaron aluminum since bottoming out $1676.5, extending all the way upward trend, is constantly refresh record high in February, plate to break through the $1900 mark, and the mark for the support, by the end of March 2, Aaron aluminum climbed to $1957, the highest record of 26 months, technically, rising short-term Aaron aluminum shape intact, march Aaron aluminum or hit a record high, pay attention to the $2000 mark above the pressure.
Figure 9: Shanghai aluminum main link market chart.
Earlier this month at the New Year at the start of the Shanghai aluminum in Aaron, usher in a wave of rallies, highest rebound until 14580, however, due to the increased after the arrival of the goods market, and for the fed to raise interest rates expected to heat up, prices rise, decline, then go all the way to recovery after 13505, below the 13500 a line support, technically, two sessions held in March, environmental clean up strict can make aluminum to heat up, the environmental protection of the heating period of four provinces of north China limited energy intensive high pollution industry approval was exposed, environmental production hype are confirmed, from the point of trend, high aluminum continuous innovation, and the upward trend in good condition, Shanghai aluminum is subject to the inventory pressure, the trend is slightly weak, but the overall volatile trend is unchanged, the above attention to 14500 pressure. Beware the price of aluminum after the middle of the month.
Iv. Market outlook and operation Suggestions.
Good U.S. economic data boosted, Aaron aluminum constantly refresh record high this month, to break through the $1900 mark on the plate and the mark for the support, by the end of March 2, Aaron aluminum climbed to $1957, the highest record of 26 months, technically, rising short-term Aaron aluminum shape intact, march Aaron aluminum or hit a record high, pay attention to the $2000 mark above the pressure.
Shanghai aluminum is subject to inventory pressure, moves slightly weak, but the overall shock strong trend remains unchanged, Shanghai aluminum up before they fell this month, the Shanghai aluminum main early highest climbed to 14500 above, then decline, minimum dip to 13505, the 13500 a line support, technically, two sessions held in March, environmental clean up strict can make aluminum to heat up, the environmental protection of the heating period of four provinces of north China limited energy intensive high pollution industry approval was exposed, environmental production hype are confirmed, from the point of trend, Aaron aluminum innovation is high, and rising trend in good condition, the Shanghai aluminum shocks strong trend remains unchanged, pressure 14500 top concern. Beware the price of aluminum after the middle of the month.
Therefore, we believe that the aluminum price is expected to go up first in March, and the range of lun aluminum fluctuates between $1,850 and $2000. The main fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum is 1.35- 14,500. East China spot aluminum fluctuates from 1.34 to 142,000, and it is recommended to buy at a moderate amount.