According to statistics, in March, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 2.53 million tons, down 3% year on year. In the first quarter, the total output of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 7.368,000 tons, down 1.9% year on year. In March, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum rebounded, and the annualized operation capacity increased by about 249,000 tons. The increase in operation capacity was mainly due to the release of output from the capacity of communication and power transmission. In the same period, the increase in resumed production capacity of Qingtongxia, Xinye, Huangguoshu Aluminum and Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum contributed to the output. After entering April, although the output release of resumed production capacity still has some increment, compared with the same period of last year, the annualized operation capacity of 30.94 million tons, it seems that it is difficult to reach the level of the same period of last year in the short term. Therefore, it can be expected that the overall output of domestic electrolytic aluminum in April will still maintain a negative growth state.

Although with the rising price of Shanghai aluminum resume rumors, but the actual choice of resume production of aluminum enterprises limited, the market supply will not increase significantly in the first half of the year; On the other hand, the downstream consumption of aluminum is stable, the order situation is good, the destocking process of aluminum ingot continues, the aluminum market basically continues to support the upward movement of Shanghai aluminum prices, the medium-term target price of 12500 yuan/ton. However, as the aluminum price recovers to around 12000 yuan/ton, the profit level of electrolytic aluminum enterprises recovers, and it is expected that a new batch of aluminum factories will increase their hedging positions, and the aluminum price at the integer pass of 12000 yuan/ton will face repeated competition in the short term.

The current market is concerned about two issues, one is when the domestic aluminum ingot inventory bottom? Second, five aluminum ingot inventory reached a very low value after the market reaction? Some people believe that under the stable consumption of downstream processing enterprises in April-May, inventory will hit a low point from late May to early June, and the year-on-year recovery of output may last until late June, which is expected to increase. The main impetus for the rise of output is the resumption of production and the release of new capacity. Of course, if late-stage consumption continues to be strong, the destocking cycle could take longer than six weeks. In the destocking process, the aluminum price will appear two obvious characteristics, on the one hand, the spot discount is difficult to significantly open, the spot discount is expected to continue to stabilize in the phase of the aluminum monthly discount 50 yuan/ton to the level of water. On the other hand, in the process of destocking, will continue to support the aluminum price itself, aluminum price rise space may exceed the range of market expectations.